Israel and Gaza: In War and Politics Timing Is Everything

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Israel and Gaza: In War and Politics Timing Is Everything

Israel’s response to Hamas’ resumed missiles attacks has taken the world –- and Hamas militants — by surprise. Their counterattack has been sudden, massive, and so far extremely effective. Their air strikes have been surgical and designed to smash Hamas’ military infrastructure while avoiding collateral civilian casualties. If Israel does send in ground troops in a second wave, they will aim at destroying Hamas as a military threat to Israel once and for all. In war, timing is everything.

But timing is everything in politics, too, since Israel’s counterattack comes just weeks before their February elections. The outcome of this war will be the major issue in the elections and no doubt determine who forms Israel’s next government. A week ago Likud, led by hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu, seemed the likely victor. A week ago, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were trailing in the polls. The futility of their withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 and their bungling of the Hezbollah offensive in 2006 made them look soft on terrorism and unable to protect Israel in an increasingly hostile world. The Hamas offensive has changed all that.

It is no secret that during the American presidential campaign Israel worried whether a President Obama would be as staunch a supporter and loyal an ally as previous U.S. presidents had been.

By now, in its waning hours, the Olmert administration seems to have learned its lesson. The air strikes into Gaza have been well planned. They have taken out most of Hamas’ military targets and softened Gaza up for a rapid ground offensive. Israeli jets are flying low altitude sorties over Lebanon, a clear warning to militants there to stay out of the fight.

This begs the question of why Hamas would launch a missile barrage just before the Israeli elections? Because they’ve got upcoming elections, too! When Hamas was an opposition party under a Fatah government, they could promise the moon. Now that Hamas is in charge of Gaza, they’ve proved to be ineffective administrators, and failed to deliver on their promises to improve peoples’ daily lives. They’ve also failed to make inroads into the West Bank. Hamas was running out of options.

The Israeli and Palestinian elections aren’t the only change of government Hamas and Israel are attuned to. For Hamas, they might have concluded it was easier to break the truce during the American presidential transition than after a new administration was sworn in, especially since it’s clear they did not anticipate Israel’s strong and effective response.

For Israel, it made no sense to wait. If all goes well for them, the Hamas operation will be completed just in time for Barack Obama’s Inauguration on January 20. It is no secret that during the American presidential campaign Israel worried whether a President Obama would be as staunch a supporter and loyal an ally as previous U.S. presidents had been. Better to take decisive action against Hamas now, rather than risk an incoming Obama administration that might urge caution and diplomacy instead of decisive military action. Once again, timing is everything.